Beyond Forecasting: The Belief-to-Trade Layer in Prediction-Market Agents

[Submitted on 3 Jul 2026]

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Abstract:Forecasting future events has attracted growing attention as a testbed for general-purpose AI. A natural way to ground this evaluation is let the models trade in the prediction markets. Trading, however, requires more than forecasting. Moreover, recent benchmarks report a substantial gap between calibrated probability scores and the trading results. We propose Raven-Agent, to the best of our knowledge, the first autonomous trading agent for prediction markets. On a controlled replay over an archived decision set, our architecture achieves the only positive return and the only positive risk-adjusted return among all tested policies. We have released our code in this https URL .

Submission history

From: Yuxuan Wang [view email]
[v1] Fri, 3 Jul 2026 06:49:48 UTC (813 KB)