Constituency Optimisation Through Hamiltonian Representation Of Mandates (COTHROM): Algorithmic Redistricting of Irish Election Boundaries

[Submitted on 2 Jun 2026]

View PDF HTML (experimental)

Abstract:Electoral redistricting in Ireland’s Proportional Representation Single Transferable Vote (PR-STV) system faces the challenge of selecting an optimally representative set of electoral boundaries from an enormous set of possible configurations, and where “representative” is a delicate balance of constitutional objectives that are often in tension with one another. We present the first computational framework for Irish electoral redistricting that systematically optimises across multiple constitutional requirements while making trade-offs explicit and quantifiable. The electoral redistricting problem is parsed using statistical physics, where constitutional objectives are considered as terms in a Potts Hamiltonian. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods and simulated annealing are employed to minimise this objective function, systematically exploring this configuration space, with coupling constants as proxies for objective weightings. Multi Criterion Decision Analysis (MCDA) and Pareto Optimality is then utilised to remedy the ambiguity in choosing a certain objective weighting combination over others. With respect to proportional representation and compactness objectives evaluated in County Cork, COTHROM consistently improves on the existing legal constituency boundaries for a range of objective weightings.

Submission history

From: Michael A.J. Mitchell Mr. [view email]
[v1] Tue, 2 Jun 2026 09:43:40 UTC (21,950 KB)