The Remittance Blueprint: Data-driven Intelligence for Sri Lanka

[Submitted on 26 Jun 2026 (v1), last revised 30 Jun 2026 (this version, v2)]

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Abstract:This study analyzes Sri Lankan migration and remittances over 32 years (1994-2025). Using a 384-month harmonized dataset, we apply exploratory data analysis, stationarity corrected time-series modeling (ADF, Johansen, VAR/VECM), and supervised learning. Results reveal remittance inflows are primarily driven by external macroeconomic variables, specifically exchange rate dynamics and global oil prices, rather than domestic indicators. Impulse response analysis confirms the asymmetric impact of currency depreciation and oil price shocks. Predictively, multivariate machine learning models outperform traditional univariate approaches; Ridge Regression achieves a 73.8% accuracy improvement over SARIMA (Annualized RMSE: USD 494.8 Mn). The optimized framework projects 2026 remittances at USD 9,001 million under stable conditions. These findings highlight the structural dependence of remittances on global economies, emphasizing the need for robust exchange rate policies, skilled migration, and formal financial channels to enhance long-term economic resilience.

Submission history

From: Nisansa De Silva [view email]
[v1] Fri, 26 Jun 2026 15:35:46 UTC (762 KB)
[v2] Tue, 30 Jun 2026 07:47:29 UTC (824 KB)